Research

Publications

1. “Assessing the future of oil and gas production and local government revenue in five western US basins”, with Daniel Raimi, Zachary Whitlock. The Energy Journal (2024).

2. “Equity weighting increases the social cost of carbon”, with Lisa Rennels, Frank Errickson, and David Anthoff. Science. Policy Forum. 385, no. 6710 (2024): 715-717.

3. “Estimating the Emissions Reductions from Supply-side Fossil Fuel Interventions”, with Harrison Fell, Deborah Gordon, and TJ Conway. Energy Economics. Vol. 136, (August 2024).

4. “The Shadow Price of Capital: Accounting for Capital Displacement in Benefit–Cost Analysis”, with Richard Newell and Billy Pizer. Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy. Vol. 5, (2024).

5. “US benefit-cost analysis requires revision”, 2023, with Peter H. Howard , Max Sarinsky, Michael Bauer, Caroline Cecot, Maureen Cropper, Moritz Drupp, Mark Freeman, Kenneth T. Gillingham, Christian Gollier, Ben Groom, Qingran Li, Michael Livermore, Richard Newell, William A. Pizer, Glenn Rudebusch, Thomas Sterner, and Gernot Wagner. May 25, (2023). Science. Vol 380, Issue 6647. p. 803. DOI: 10.1126/science.adi5943.

6. “Climate Royalty Surcharges”, with James Stock. Working version available at RFF. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 120 (2023): 102844.

7. “RCTs Against the Machine: Can Machine Learning Prediction Methods Recover Experimental Treatment Effects?”, with Casey Wichman and Karen Palmer. Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists 10, no. 5 (2023): 1231-1264. Preprint available at RFF.

8. “Comprehensive Evidence Implies a Higher Social Cost of CO₂”, Kevin Rennert, Frank Errickson, Brian C. Prest, Lisa Rennels, Richard G. Newell, William Pizer, Cora Kingdon, Jordan Wingenroth, Roger Cooke, Bryan Parthum, David Smith, Kevin Cromar, Delavane Diaz, Frances C. Moore, Ulrich K. Müller, Richard J. Plevin, Adrian E. Raftery, Hana Ševčíková, Hannah Sheets, James H. Stock, Tammy Tan, Mark Watson, Tony E. Wong, David Anthoff, Nature, (2022)

9. “A Discounting Rule for the Social Cost of Carbon”, with Richard Newell and Billy Pizer, Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 9 , no. 5 (September 2022): 1017-1046. Preprint available at RFF.

10. “Supply-side Reforms to Oil and Gas Production on Federal Lands: Modeling the Implications for CO₂ Emissions, Revenues, and Leakage”, Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 9, no. 4 (July 2022): 681-720. Preprint available at RFF.

11. “The Social Cost of Carbon: Advances in Long-Term Probabilistic Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates“, with K. Rennert, W. Pizer, R. Newell, D. Anthoff, C. Kingdon, L. Rennels, R. Cooke, A. Raftery, H. Sevcikova, and F. Errickson, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, (2021). Preprint available at RFF.

12. “The GDP-Temperature Relationship: Implications for Climate Change Damages”, with Richard Newell and Steven Sexton, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 108, (July 2021), 102445. Working paper available at RFF.

13. “How Clean is ‘Refined Coal’? An Empirical Assessment of a Billion Dollar Tax Credit”, with Alan Krupnick, Energy Economics, 97, (May 2021), 105023. Working paper available at RFF.

14. “Prices versus Quantities with Policy Updating”, with Billy Pizer. Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 7, no. 3 (May 2020): 483-518.

15. “Peaking Interest: How awareness drives the effectiveness of time-of-use electricity pricing”, Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 7, no. 1 (January 2020): 103-143.

16. “Trophy Hunting vs. Manufacturing Energy: The Price-Responsiveness of Shale Gas”, with Richard Newell & Ashley Vissing. Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 6, no. 2 (March 2019): 177-217.

17. “The Unconventional Oil Supply Boom: Aggregate Price Response from Microdata”, with Richard Newell. The Energy Journal, 40, no. 3 (May 2019).

18. “Explanations for the 2014 Oil Price Decline: Supply or Demand?”, Energy Economics, 74 (August 2018): 63-75.

Work in Progress

1. “Accounting for Biodiversity Loss Raises the Social Cost of CO₂”, with Jordan Wingenroth, Lisa Rennels, Kevin Rennert, Frank Errickson, and David Anthoff.

2. “Disentangling the Roles of Growth Uncertainty, Discounting, and the Climate Beta on the Social Cost of Carbon”

Other Reports and Articles

• RFF Issue Brief, Brian C. Prest, September 5, 2024, “How Much Would Expanding Federal Oil and Gas Leasing Increase Global Carbon Emissions?”

• Resources Blog, Daniel Raimi, Alan Krupnick, Joshua Linn, Richard D. Morgenstern, William Pizer, Brian C. Prest, and Suzanne Russo, April 18, 2024, “After the Pause: Understanding the Economic, Environmental, and Geopolitical Implications of Increased US Liquefied Natural Gas Exports”

• RFF Report, Daniel Raimi, Yuqi Zhu, Richard Newell, and Brian Prest. April 2, 2024, “Global Energy Outlook 2024: Peaks or Plateaus?”

• Resources Blog, Brian Prest, March 2024, “Feedbacks between Emissions Markets and Political Outcomes: A Case Study of Washington State’s Cap-and-Trade Program”

• RFF Report, Brian Prest and Jordan Wingenroth, March 2024, “Operational versus Capital Expenditure Risk in a Clean Energy Transition”

• Resources Blog, Brian Prest, February 2024, “Accurately Quantifying “Super-Emitting” Leaks Is Key for the Methane Fee to Be Effective”

• RFF Issue Brief, Jordan Wingenroth, Brian Prest, and Kevin Rennert. October 2023, “The Economic Benefits of Achieving the Paris Agreement Goals”

• RFF Issue Brief, Jordan Wingenroth, Brian Prest, and Kevin Rennert. March 2023, “Will Nations Meet the Paris Agreement’s Emissions and Temperature Goals?”

• RFF Report, Daniel Raimi, Yuqi Zhu, Richard Newell, Brian Prest, and Aaron Bergman. March 28, 2023, “Global Energy Outlook 2023: Sowing the Seeds of an Energy Transition”

• Resources Magazine, Aaron Bergman, Brian C. Prest, and Karen Palmer. October 2022, “How Can Hydrogen Producers Show That They Are “Clean”?”

• Barron’s, Commentary, by Maureen Cropper, Richard Newell, Brian Prest, and Kevin Rennert. September 8, 2022, “The Damage from Carbon Is More Costly Than We Thought”

• Resources Magazine, by Brian C. Prest, Jordan Wingenroth, and Kevin Rennert. September 1, 2022, “The Social Cost of Carbon: Reaching a New Estimate”

• RFF Blog, August 15, 2022, “Inflation Reduction Act Can Achieve Emissions Reductions Even with Oil and Gas Provisions”

• RFF Report, with Karen Palmer, Brian Prest, Seth Villanueva, and Stuart Iler. August 11, 2022, “Options for EIA to Publish CO₂ Emissions Rates for Electricity”

• RFF Report, April 21, 2022, “Partners, Not Rivals: The Power of Parallel Supply-Side and Demand-Side Climate Policy”

• RFF Report, with Daniel Raimi, Erin Campbell, Richard Newell, Seth Villanueva, and Jordan Wingenroth, April 7, 2022, “Global Energy Outlook 2022: Turning Points and Tension in the Energy Transition”

• Resources Magazine, K. Rennert, W. Pizer, R. Newell, D. Anthoff, C. Kingdon, L. Rennels, R. Cooke, A. Raftery, H. Sevcikova, F. Errickson, and J. Wingenroth. October 21, 2021, “Working Toward a New Social Cost of Carbon”

• Resources Magazine, Brian C. Prest, William Pizer, and Richard G. Newell. October 21, 2021, “Improving Discounting in the Social Cost of Carbon”

• RFF Issue Brief, September 9, 2021, “Methane Fees’ Effects on Natural Gas Prices and Methane Leakage”

• RFF Report, with Richard Newell, Daniel Raimi, and Seth Villanueva, June 8, 2021, “The Global Energy Outlook 2021: Pathways from Paris”

• RFF Explainer, April 21, 2021, “Federal Climate Policy 108: The Oil and Gas Industry”

• RFF Report, with Dallas Burtraw and Karen Palmer, April 13, 2021, “Waiting for Clarity: How a Price on Carbon Can Inspire Investment”

• RFF Blog, October 1, 2020, “Examining the Effects of a Federal Leasing Ban: Drilling into an Industry Study “

• Resources Magazine, December 21, 2020, “Policy Options for Oil and Gas Leasing Reform on Federal Lands and Waters”

• RFF Blog, October 1, 2020, “Examining the Effects of a Federal Leasing Ban: Drilling into an Industry Study”

• RFF Blog, September 16, 2020, “The Economic and Emissions Consequences of Supply-Side Reforms to Oil and Gas Production on Federal Lands”

• RFF Report, with Richard Newell, Daniel Raimi, and Seth Villanueva, May 20, 2020, “The Global Energy Outlook 2020: Energy Transition or Energy Addition?”

• RFF Blog, with Alan Krupnick, March 2, 2020, “‘Refined Coal’ is Still No Bargain”

• RFF Explainer, January 16, 2020, “Discounting 101”

• Resources Magazine, October 9, 2019, “How Clean is ‘Refined Coal’? The billion-dollar subsidy you’ve never heard of”

• RFF Blog, with Karen L. Palmer, June 7, 2018, “A Strategic Electricity Generating Reserve: Not Enticing Enough to Add to the Menu”

• Contributing author, “Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services”. 2019.

• RFF Issue Brief, November 29, 2017, “How the Shale Boom Has Transformed the US Oil and Gas Industry”

• Congressional Budget Office report, with Terry Dinan, 2011, “The Effects of Renewable or Clean Electricity Standards”

• Congressional Budget Office report, with Paige Piper-Bach, 2010, “Immigration Policy in the United States: An Update”

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